North Carolina Governor Race Shifts to Democrats in Two Election Forecasts

Two election forecasters shifted North Carolina’s gubernatorial race toward Democrats this week as polls show Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein building a lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson.
North Carolina is a crucial swing state on the presidential level but is also home to perhaps the most hotly contested gubernatorial race of 2024. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is unable to run for a third term due to term limits, and Democrats are increasingly optimistic about holding the executive office in the Tar Heel State.
Robinson has faced scrutiny over his positions on issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, which Democrats believe could alienate more moderate voters in the closely divided state. Recent polls suggest Stein may be favored, prompting two forecasters to give Democrats an advantage in their election ratings.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball reclassified the race as “Leans Democrat” from “Toss-Up” in an update published Wednesday by J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik.
They wrote that Robinson has made statements that are “at a bare minimum, provocative and divisive,” but Stein has “generally avoided mentioning some of his opponent’s more conspiratorial views, although he has highlighted some of Robinson’s conservative statements on abortion.”
Robinson, meanwhile, has sought to “soften his image,” including by releasing an advertisement addressing his position on abortion, where Robinson and his wife Yolanda discuss their experiences with abortion. The candidate said he supports the state’s current laws, which allow abortion for up to 12 weeks and “common sense exemptions”, saying in the advert, “Thirty years ago, my wife and I made a very difficult decision,” he said. “It was like a silent pain between us that we never spoke of.” His wife, Yolanda Robinson, said in the commercial that having an abortion is “something that stays with you forever.”
Robinson has used words like “filth” and “maggots” when talking about the LGBTQ+ community and said in 2019 that mass shootings were “karma” for American’s support of abortion rights. He also sparked criticism after saying Black Americans are not owed reparations for slavery, saying, “If you want to tell the truth about it, it is YOU who owes!”
Jeff Allen, Stein’s campaign manager, responded to the shifts in a statement to Newsweek on Wednesday.
“Voters across North Carolina are learning about the contrast between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson. Josh fights for people; Mark Robinson fights job-killing culture wars. But make no mistake: this race will be very close. Our campaign is working hard to earn every vote and make sure people know that as Governor, Josh Stein will build a safer, stronger North Carolina,” he said.
Newsweek also reached out to the Robinson campaign for comment via email.
“Though North Carolina is in our Toss-up column at the presidential level, it is almost certainly more of a ‘must win’ state for Donald Trump than it is for Kamala Harris—so as Election Day nears, increasing Republican investment could help Robinson close the gap. But we also feel that, as most recent Democratic nominees for governor in the state have done, Stein is also positioned to outperform the top of the ticket,” Coleman and Kondik wrote.
On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report also moved the race from a toss-up to “Leans Democratic.”
Recent polls recently showed Stein leading Robinson. A SurveyUSA/High Point University poll showed Stein with a 14-point advantage (50 percent to 36 percent). The poll surveyed 941 likely voters from August 19 to August 21.
Elsewhere, a New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted among 655 likely voters from August 9 to August 14, found Stein leading by 10 points (49 percent to 39 percent).
An ActiVote poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from July 26 to August 26, found Stein leading by 8 points (54 percent to 46 percent).